全球的發展目前都圍繞著能源而展開。我主要是想討論一下中國的風險

，就是能源價格、需求以目前的這種方式走下去，中國將麵臨什麼樣的問題。

　　中國能源消費呈現兩大特征

　　現(xian)代(dai)社(she)會(hui)從(cong)某(mou)種(zhong)意(yi)義(yi)上(shang)說(shuo)是(shi)被(bei)能(neng)源(yuan)硬(ying)堆(dui)起(qi)來(lai)的(de)。也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)說(shuo)當(dang)一(yi)個(ge)社(she)會(hui)的(de)現(xian)代(dai)化(hua)程(cheng)度(du)越(yue)高(gao)

，對(dui)能(neng)源(yuan)的(de)依(yi)賴(lai)就(jiu)更(geng)為(wei)密(mi)切(qie)。能(neng)源(yuan)問(wen)題(ti)是(shi)比(bi)較(jiao)大(da)的(de)問(wen)題(ti)，因(yin)為(wei)需(xu)求(qiu)在(zai)不(bu)斷(duan)擴(kuo)大(da)，但(dan)是(shi)由(you)於(yu)常(chang)規(gui)能(neng)源(yuan)的(de)不(bu)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)，供(gong)給(gei)往(wang)小(xiao)的(de)方(fang)麵(mian)走(zou)，這(zhe)樣(yang)就(jiu)造(zao)成(cheng)價(jia)格(ge)不(bu)斷(duan)走(zou)高(gao)。

　　duizhongguoyingxiangbijiaodadeshixiquewenti。weishenmehuixiquene？zhongguoshiyigedidawubodeguojia，danshirenkoujishuyehenda，yuzhegerenkoujishuxiangbi
，tadeziyuanchubeikenengjiubijiaoxiaole。zhongguodechengshihua、工業化階段在2020年之前基本會結束
，我們討論的是從現在到2020年，中國在能源方麵會遇到什麼問題。

　　中國目前的經濟發展階段對能源到底有多大的依賴？在工業化階段，美國的G D P增長跟能源、dianlizengchangyouyigexiangduigudingdebili，ribenyeyouyigexiangduigudingdebili，zhongguoyeyouyigexiangduigudingdebili，zhegebiliduimeigeguojialaishuodoushibijiaojiejinde。womenkeyitaolunhenduowenti，danshihennanbikaiGDP增長與能源
、電(dian)力(li)需(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)長(chang)相(xiang)對(dui)應(ying)的(de)比(bi)例(li)。中(zhong)國(guo)今(jin)後(hou)想(xiang)低(di)碳(tan)發(fa)展(zhan)，從(cong)某(mou)種(zhong)意(yi)義(yi)上(shang)講(jiang)是(shi)很(hen)困(kun)難(nan)的(de)事(shi)情(qing)，也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)說(shuo)中(zhong)國(guo)現(xian)在(zai)麵(mian)臨(lin)的(de)很(hen)多(duo)問(wen)題(ti)符(fu)合(he)經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)規(gui)律(lv)。

　　目(mu)前(qian)中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)至(zhi)少(shao)呈(cheng)現(xian)兩(liang)大(da)特(te)征(zheng)
，能(neng)源(yuan)需(xu)求(qiu)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)，並(bing)且(qie)是(shi)剛(gang)性(xing)需(xu)求(qiu)。能(neng)源(yuan)結(jie)構(gou)以(yi)煤(mei)為(wei)主(zhu)，這(zhe)是(shi)另(ling)外(wai)一(yi)個(ge)特(te)征(zheng)，這(zhe)兩(liang)個(ge)放(fang)在(zai)一(yi)起(qi)，碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)增(zeng)長(chang)就(jiu)比(bi)較(jiao)快(kuai)
，這(zhe)是(shi)不(bu)可(ke)逆(ni)的(de)。

　　另外一個是能源安全問題，能源需求增長快
、量(liang)大(da)，以(yi)煤(mei)為(wei)主(zhu)，把(ba)這(zhe)兩(liang)個(ge)加(jia)在(zai)一(yi)起(qi)，中(zhong)國(guo)就(jiu)麵(mian)臨(lin)能(neng)源(yuan)安(an)全(quan)和(he)低(di)碳(tan)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)問(wen)題(ti)。中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)能(neng)源(yuan)安(an)全(quan)以(yi)往(wang)指(zhi)的(de)是(shi)石(shi)油(you)安(an)全(quan)
，對(dui)外(wai)依(yi)存(cun)度(du)大(da)概(gai)是(shi)55%，天然氣進口在不斷增大，目前進口的依存大概是13%，在10年之內，這個數據可能會增加到30%，甚至到40%。煤炭今年進口1.5億噸
，但是全球的每年產的煤很少，大致是9億噸，動力煤僅有7yidun。dafuduzougaodeguojinengyuanjiageduizhongguoyingxiangriyizengqiang，yilaiguowaidenengyuanyueduo
，duizhongguodeyingxiangyueda，dafudubodongdenengyuanjiage，zhijieyingxiangdaozhongguodehongguanjingjizhengce。

　　zhongguonengyuanxiquedelingwaiyigewentiyeshixiangduiguojishichangde，xiangduizhongguodexuqiuliang

，guojishichangtaixiao。yidanshoudaozhongguodechongji
，nengyuanjiagewangshangzoushiyigebirandejieguo。jinhoudenengyuanxiquekenenghuidaozhizhongguoduiguojishichangdeyanzhongyilai，yizhongguozhemedaderenkouzongliang
，yinggaixunzhaoshenmeyangdenengyuanxiaofeishuiping？xiangmeiguonayangzou，kendingshibuxingde。wuluncongnayigejiaodujiang
，nengyuanxiquejiangzhiyuezhongguojinhoudejingjizengchang，zheshizhongguojienengdegenbendongli。

　　稀xi缺que是shi指zhi價jia格ge越yue來lai越yue高gao，我wo們men現xian在zai之zhi所suo以yi沒mei有you看kan到dao
，是shi因yin為wei中zhong國guo的de很hen多duo能neng源yuan價jia格ge是shi沒mei有you市shi場chang化hua的de
，它ta不bu跟gen市shi場chang走zou。能neng源yuan稀xi缺que是shi看kan不bu見jian的de概gai念nian，即ji使shi暫zan時shi看kan不bu到dao價jia格ge的de上shang漲zhang，將jiang來lai也ye一yi定ding會hui看kan到dao。

　　接jie下xia來lai是shi能neng源yuan成cheng本ben的de政zheng策ce殺sha傷shang力li。能neng源yuan成cheng本ben對dui發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia是shi非fei常chang重zhong要yao的de問wen題ti，能neng源yuan價jia格ge以yi及ji能neng源yuan成cheng本ben的de提ti高gao是shi發fa展zhan清qing潔jie能neng源yuan的de關guan鍵jian障zhang礙ai，也ye就jiu是shi說shuo太tai陽yang能neng
、fengnengzaizhongguobukenengyoutaidadefazhan。chengbenyuegao，yiweizhejiageyuegao，jiageyuegao，xiaofeizheyuebutongkuai，xiaofeizheyuebutongkuai，gaigeyuenan。jingjizengchangxuyaodijiadenengyuanzhichi，zhongguoxuanzemeitan，shiyinweimeitanbianyi，yejiushishuonengyuanchengbenshijianpaideguanjianzhangai
，nengyuanchengbenshizhongguojingjifazhandeyingyueshu。

　　中國今後對石油的需求增長有多快？有兩個指標，一個是人均消費很低，意味著會走高。另一個指標是汽車的數量
，“十二五”期間每年大概有將近2000萬輛汽車投入市場，這就需要大量的石油，有相當多的錢必須花出去。

　　倡導低碳引發國際博弈

　　低di碳tan是shi全quan球qiu麵mian臨lin的de比bi較jiao大da的de問wen題ti。碳tan這zhe個ge問wen題ti造zao成cheng的de影ying響xiang是shi對dui所suo有you人ren的de，但dan是shi哪na一yi個ge國guo家jia減jian碳tan，就jiu是shi哪na一yi個ge國guo家jia的de成cheng本ben，所suo以yi在zai這zhe個ge問wen題ti上shang

，哪na個ge國guo家jia都dou不bu含han糊hu，更geng關guan鍵jian的de是shi，碳tan的de成cheng本ben還hai非fei常chang高gao，高gao到dao你ni不bu願yuan意yi去qu想xiang。沒mei有you哪na一yi個ge國guo家jia會hui比bi較jiao積ji極ji地di解jie決jue碳tan的de問wen題ti。所suo以yi從cong某mou種zhong程cheng度du上shang講jiang
，倡chang導dao低di碳tan，在zai國guo際ji上shang是shi一yi個ge博bo弈yi的de過guo程cheng。

　　zhongguogaigekaifangqudechengguo，jijicanyuguojimaoyishiyigezhongyaoyinsu。danshitadelingwaiyibianjiushiwuran，zhenggeguojimaoyiconghendachengdushangzengjialezhongguodehuanjingwuran。jingjiquanqiuhuashidefadaguojiadehuanjingbaohuchangchangyibufadaguojiadejiasuwuranweidaijia。tanpaifangdeyingxiangzhuyaoshiduiqihoubianhuadeyingxiang，tashiquanqiuxingde，zainayigeguojiapaifangmeiyouqubie，danshiyouyuchanchugennengyuanxiaolvdebutong
，yijinengyuanjiegoudebutong
，zaibutongguojiashengchanmouyigechanpindepaifangshiyouqubiede。chuantongdezaidishouruguojiashengchan，zaigaoshouruguojiaxiaofeideguojimaoyimoshikenengdaozhigengduodetanpaifang。

　　今jin後hou如ru果guo人ren類lei以yi低di碳tan的de方fang式shi朝chao前qian走zou，低di碳tan的de考kao慮lv可ke能neng把ba全quan球qiu經jing濟ji以yi另ling外wai一yi種zhong方fang式shi綁bang在zai一yi起qi。從cong本ben身shen的de利li益yi考kao慮lv，發fa達da國guo家jia必bi須xu考kao慮lv發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia的de能neng源yuan效xiao率lv和he能neng源yuan結jie構gou。理li論lun上shang講jiang，如ru果guo你ni的de能neng源yuan結jie構gou跟gen它ta一yi樣yang好hao，效xiao率lv跟gen它ta一yi樣yang高gao
，排pai放fang跟gen它ta一yi樣yang多duo，它ta買mai你ni的de東dong西xi就jiu沒mei有you問wen題ti，對dui它ta沒mei有you影ying響xiang。但dan是shi如ru果guo你ni的de能neng源yuan結jie構gou、能neng源yuan效xiao率lv跟gen它ta不bu一yi樣yang，比bi它ta差cha的de話hua

，你ni生sheng產chan某mou一yi個ge東dong西xi
，你ni的de排pai放fang就jiu比bi它ta的de排pai放fang多duo。也ye就jiu是shi說shuo你ni來lai生sheng產chan，就jiu比bi它ta自zi己ji生sheng產chan的de汙wu染ran要yao大da。從cong這zhe個ge意yi義yi上shang說shuo，低di碳tan經jing濟ji全quan球qiu化hua的de基ji礎chu是shi碳tan排pai放fang是shi全quan球qiu性xing的de影ying響xiang，碳tan減jian排pai考kao慮lv將jiang以yi貿mao易yi或huo非fei貿mao易yi手shou段duan
，把ba全quan球qiu各ge國guo的de經jing濟ji發fa展zhan和he發fa展zhan模mo式shi、能neng源yuan效xiao率lv和he能neng源yuan結jie構gou聯lian係xi起qi來lai。以yi往wang美mei國guo的de消xiao費fei者zhe考kao慮lv的de是shi成cheng本ben問wen題ti
，很hen可ke能neng也ye是shi減jian少shao汙wu染ran的de問wen題ti，但dan是shi今jin後hou要yao考kao慮lv的de可ke能neng就jiu是shi碳tan排pai放fang對dui氣qi候hou影ying響xiang的de問wen題ti，這zhe就jiu是shi在zai非fei常chang不bu同tong的de層ceng麵mian來lai考kao慮lv問wen題ti。

　　ruguotanpaifangduiqihoubianhuadeyingxiangqueding，ditanquanqiuhuadedaolaiqueding，ditanquanqiuhuadesuduqujueyuqihoubianhuadeyingxiang，yijiduiqihoubianhuadelijie。jiadingshuowomenquedingtanyuqihoubianhuashizhengxiangguan
，erqieyidingshiyouyutanpaifangyinqileqihoubianhua，nameditandequanqiuhuayidinghuidaolai。

　　低碳到底有什麼壞處？咱們討論一下發達國家可能的做法。它的做法我們都想得到，有兩種做法：yizhongshibijiaohezuodezuofa，zheyoubaohanlianggefangmian，yigeshichengdanzeren，yinweicongxianzaiderenjunpaifang
，huozhecongyiwangdelishipaifanglaikan，muqianzaishangmianpiaodetanjibenshangdoushifadaguojiapaichulaide。jinguanshuozhongguodezengliangfeichangda，danzhongguobijingcanyudeshijianbijiaoduan
，zhongguoderenjunyehendi。ruguofadaguojiayuanyichengdanzeren，zhejiushiyaochengdanchengben
，tongguojishuhezijindeyuanzhulaitigaofazhanzhongguojiadexiaolv。danshizhexuyaozijinhejishudezhichi，fouzefazhanzhongguojiazuobudao。dierzhonghezuodefangshi，conggongping、renjunpaifanglaidingyi
，huozhejiangxiaolv，zhongguodejianpaichengbenbitamenyaodi，congzhelianggejiaodutuixingquanqiuxingdetanjiaoyi。suoyiwotebiechangdaoquanqiuxingdetanjiaoyi
，yidannenggouyiyigebijiaogongpingdexingshilaiquedingtanpaifangdepinghengdian
，yidanyouyigebijiaoguifandexingshilaiquedingtadejiaoyijizhi
，zijinkendingshicongfadaguojiawangfazhanzhongguojiazoude
，danzheliangzhongfangshibeihoudeliyihenjiandan，jiushifadaguojiadetaoqian。fazhanzhongguojiacongmouzhongyiyishangshouyi
，zhezhongshouyikenengshiyouyudiqiudehuanjinggenghaoershouyi

，huozheshibenguodehuanjinggenghao。suoyishuohezuodefangshi

，woganjiaoyoukenengchuxian，danshibijiaokunnan，yinweizheyiweizhezijindeliuxiangshidanxiangde。

　　另一種是對抗的方式
，這種方式有可能是雙向的流動

，這種方式出現的可能非常大。第一種是通過貿易(碳關稅)和其他非貿易手段(減少能源補貼)，迫po使shi發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia減jian少shao排pai放fang。那na時shi候hou的de貿mao易yi糾jiu紛fen可ke能neng不bu需xu要yao以yi傾qing銷xiao的de方fang式shi來lai出chu現xian，它ta隻zhi要yao強qiang調tiao你ni的de碳tan排pai放fang比bi它ta高gao就jiu足zu夠gou了le
，而er且qie你ni的de產chan品pin碳tan排pai放fang永yong遠yuan比bi它ta高gao
，因yin為wei你ni的de電dian力li結jie構gou是shi以yi煤mei為wei主zhu，它ta的de電dian力li結jie構gou是shi以yi煤mei氣qi為wei主zhu。

　　第di二er種zhong更geng可ke能neng出chu現xian的de方fang式shi
，就jiu是shi發fa達da國guo家jia目mu前qian想xiang做zuo的de，利li用yong資zi金jin與yu技ji術shu的de優you勢shi
，創chuang造zao低di碳tan技ji術shu與yu管guan理li的de製zhi高gao點dian，然ran後hou在zai氣qi候hou談tan判pan中zhong施shi加jia溫wen室shi氣qi體ti減jian排pai的de壓ya力li，借jie機ji向xiang外wai輸shu出chu“綠色、技術和管理模式”，另一方麵提高進入市場產品的環保標準，創造“綠色壁壘”。

　　中國未來節能難度加大

　　ditanquanqiuhuajijiangdaolai，womenkankanmaoyijingjiquanqiuhuaheditanjingjiquanqiuhuazhelianggewentidaodinageqingnagezhong。maoyijingjiquanqiuhuashifazhandewenti
，takeyishiwomengongtongfuyu。ditanjingjidequanqiuhuakeyishangshengweirenleishengcundewenti，yejiushishuoditandequanqiuhuabimaoyidequanqiuhualaidegengweixunmengyixie

，tazhandegaoduhuigenggaoyixie。jinhoudeguojimaoyijiufenjiangyouyutanpaifangergengjiafuza，maoyibaohuzhuyizhanshangfeng。

　　如ru果guo低di碳tan全quan球qiu化hua比bi貿mao易yi全quan球qiu化hua的de分fen量liang更geng重zhong要yao，那na麼me低di碳tan全quan球qiu化hua如ru何he影ying響xiang貿mao易yi全quan球qiu化hua？低di碳tan全quan球qiu化hua跟gen貿mao易yi全quan球qiu化hua基ji本ben上shang是shi反fan向xiang的de關guan係xi，低di碳tan全quan球qiu化hua做zuo得de越yue大da，貿mao易yi全quan球qiu化hua越yue小xiao。如ru果guo從cong貿mao易yi的de角jiao度du講jiang，某mou品pin牌pai礦kuang泉quan水shui應ying該gai在zai中zhong國guo生sheng產chan，因yin為wei在zai中zhong國guo的de成cheng本ben低di。從cong低di碳tan的de角jiao度du講jiang，就jiu應ying該gai在zai發fa達da國guo家jia生sheng產chan，因yin為wei它ta的de排pai放fang少shao。低di碳tan做zuo得de越yue大da，這zhe個ge東dong西xi就jiu越yue可ke能neng在zai發fa達da國guo家jia生sheng產chan，而er不bu可ke能neng在zai發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia生sheng產chan。從cong這zhe個ge意yi義yi上shang講jiang，低di碳tan跟gen貿mao易yi的de全quan球qiu化hua是shi反fan向xiang的de關guan係xi。理li論lun上shang的de結jie果guo是shi各ge個ge國guo家jia的de能neng源yuan結jie構gou跟gen能neng源yuan效xiao率lv趨qu同tong，這zhe對dui發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia來lai說shuo
，隻zhi要yao你ni想xiang發fa展zhan
，就jiu是shi做zuo不bu到dao的de。也ye就jiu是shi說shuo，要yao達da到dao理li論lun上shang的de結jie果guo，發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia在zai能neng源yuan效xiao率lv跟gen能neng源yuan結jie構gou上shang要yao和he發fa達da國guo家jia相xiang同tong的de話hua，對dui消xiao費fei者zhe來lai說shuo，能neng源yuan成cheng本ben是shi無wu法fa承cheng擔dan的de
，經jing濟ji增zeng長chang是shi不bu可ke持chi續xu的de。

　　對dui於yu現xian代dai社she會hui來lai說shuo
，國guo際ji貿mao易yi是shi一yi個ge國guo家jia從cong低di收shou入ru向xiang中zhong等deng收shou入ru轉zhuan換huan的de必bi不bu可ke少shao的de環huan節jie
，一yi個ge貧pin窮qiong的de國guo家jia要yao進jin入ru發fa達da國guo家jia的de水shui平ping，融rong入ru國guo際ji社she會hui是shi一yi個ge不bu可ke缺que少shao的de階jie段duan。如ru果guo低di碳tan會hui影ying響xiang全quan球qiu貿mao易yi的de話hua，今jin後hou的de低di碳tan發fa展zhan可ke能neng會hui通tong過guo影ying響xiang貿mao易yi，使shi得de發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia往wang發fa達da國guo家jia方fang向xiang走zou會hui更geng為wei艱jian巨ju，更geng為wei困kun難nan。如ru果guo把ba這zhe條tiao路lu掐qia死si
，你ni就jiu永yong遠yuan是shi低di收shou入ru國guo家jia。所suo以yi從cong某mou種zhong意yi義yi上shang講jiang，低di碳tan的de全quan球qiu化hua是shi我wo們men今jin後hou在zai整zheng體ti博bo弈yi中zhong應ying該gai想xiang到dao的de很hen重zhong要yao的de問wen題ti。

　　中zhong國guo畢bi竟jing還hai是shi一yi個ge發fa展zhan中zhong國guo家jia，國guo際ji貿mao易yi對dui我wo們men來lai說shuo還hai是shi非fei常chang的de重zhong要yao，如ru果guo低di碳tan的de全quan球qiu化hua真zhen的de影ying響xiang貿mao易yi的de全quan球qiu化hua，對dui中zhong國guo的de影ying響xiang應ying該gai是shi非fei常chang大da的de。

　　xianzaizhongguoweishenmexuyaowaimao？neixushichangbugoushifazhanzhongguojiadegenbentezheng。zhongguoyinggaiyibijiaokuaidesuduwanchengcongdishouruwangzhongdengshouruguojiadezhuanhuan，yidanzhongguojinruzhongdengshouruguojia，zhongguoyongyouleguangkuodexiaofeishichang，nashihouzhongguoduiwaimaoyideyilaijiubijiaoxiao。dangran，meiyouditanzhegewentidaolai，jiangjiukechixuwufeishibagongyehua
、chengshihuadeshijianyanchangjinian。ruguoyouditandeweixie

，zhongguoshifouxuyaobazhegeshijiansuoduan，jianshaowaijieduizhongguodeweixie？ruguozhendeyouzhegebiyaodehua，zhongguodehenduozhengce
、很多戰略，包括目前提出的很多口號可能得重新思考。

　　節jie能neng減jian排pai是shi大da家jia必bi須xu麵mian臨lin的de比bi較jiao現xian實shi的de問wen題ti，咱zan們men的de節jie能neng減jian排pai目mu標biao離li不bu開kai中zhong國guo現xian階jie段duan經jing濟ji發fa展zhan的de基ji本ben特te征zheng。我wo這zhe並bing不bu是shi說shuo中zhong國guo不bu需xu要yao減jian排pai，而er是shi說shuo中zhong國guo的de減jian排pai難nan度du，以yi及ji現xian實shi中zhong我wo們men會hui看kan到dao很hen多duo東dong西xi。不bu是shi說shuo政zheng策ce沒mei有you作zuo為wei，而er是shi政zheng策ce作zuo為wei的de空kong間jian不bu是shi很hen大da。

　　中國目前經濟發展麵臨四大約束：能源稀缺、環境保護和應對氣候變化、能源安全、能源成本。能源成本對中國是很大的問題，電價調不動
、油價調不動就體現出能源成本是很大問題。

　　jienengjianpaiyouliangzhongfangshi
，yizhongshishichang，yizhongshixingzheng。yikaoshichangtongchangshibijiaohaodefangshi，danshijianxiaomeinamekuai。caiquxingzhengdeshouduanjianxiaokuai，guanyizuoshiyizuo，danshitayouchengben，tadeshehuichengbentongchangbijiaoda。

　　中國的低碳轉型跟能源戰略大致是節能為主、發展清潔能源為輔、保障能源安全，而不是大規模地發展風電、太陽能。進入“十二五”時期
，關閉落後產能空間大大縮小
，節能需要做更為精細的工作，包括提高能源效率、轉變生產方式，實現難度更大，成本也更高。