1月份我國非金融類外商直接投資達112億美元，同比增長109.78%，當月順差也高達194.9億美元。專家估計，如果算上金融類外商直接投資和通過其他方式進入我國的外資
，1月份外彙儲備可能增加500億美元。

　　在境外熱錢大量流入我國的同時，國內的資金麵也頗不平靜，1月人民幣新增貸款創出8036億(yi)元(yuan)曆(li)史(shi)新(xin)高(gao)。分(fen)析(xi)人(ren)士(shi)認(ren)為(wei)

，除(chu)了(le)熱(re)錢(qian)湧(yong)動(dong)，物(wu)價(jia)上(shang)漲(zhang)壓(ya)力(li)更(geng)是(shi)不(bu)容(rong)忽(hu)視(shi)，再(zai)加(jia)上(shang)美(mei)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)麵(mian)臨(lin)巨(ju)大(da)不(bu)確(que)定(ding)性(xing)，我(wo)國(guo)的(de)宏(hong)觀(guan)調(tiao)控(kong)麵(mian)臨(lin)非(fei)常(chang)大(da)的(de)難(nan)度(du)

，簡(jian)單(dan)依(yi)靠(kao)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)收(shou)緊(jin)流(liu)動(dong)性(xing)的(de)緊(jin)縮(suo)方(fang)式(shi)難(nan)以(yi)為(wei)繼(ji)，宏(hong)觀(guan)調(tiao)控(kong)下(xia)一(yi)步(bu)應(ying)更(geng)多(duo)打(da)出(chu)財(cai)政(zheng)、貨幣政策“組合拳”，疏堵結合，以期熨平短期經濟波動。

　　國guo家jia發fa改gai委wei官guan員yuan提ti出chu，次ci貸dai危wei機ji使shi美mei國guo經jing濟ji增zeng長chang麵mian臨lin巨ju大da不bu確que定ding性xing
，從cong而er給gei中zhong國guo經jing濟ji增zeng長chang也ye帶dai來lai不bu確que定ding性xing，它ta的de影ying響xiang可ke能neng會hui超chao過guo近jin期qi我wo國guo南nan方fang地di區qu遭zao受shou的de雨yu雪xue冰bing凍dong災zai害hai所suo造zao成cheng的de影ying響xiang，國guo際ji國guo內nei經jing濟ji形xing勢shi麵mian臨lin著zhe新xin的de變bian化hua。但dan抑yi製zhi不bu合he理li的de投tou資zi增zeng長chang和he保bao持chi物wu價jia穩wen定ding，仍reng是shi2008年政府的主要任務之一。這表明，緊縮的貨幣政策或許不會有太多鬆動。

　　dangran
，mianduireqianyongdong，huobizhengceshoudangqichong
，nameyangxinghuiruhetiaokongne？ruguojiaxi，shibiyinqizhongmeilichajinyibukuoda，reqianjiangjixuyongruzhongguo。erqie，kaolvdaodangqianwujiajiegouxingshangzhangyouxiangchengbentuidongxingshangzhangzhuanbiandequshi，jiaxifanerhuijinyibuzhutuichengbentuidongxingtongzhang。yinci，jiaxidekenengxingzaiduanqineibingbuda，danhuishouliudongxingdexuyaoyoushiyangxingbudebuzuochufanying。fenxirenshirenwei，chulejiadafaxingyangpiaodengchangguixingduichongshouduanwai，huishouliudongxingdezhongrenkenengxuyaozhunbeijinlvlaidangang。

　　從成本上考慮，央行使用準備金率工具的成本隻有1.89%(超額存款準備金利率)
，大大低於目前4%zuoyoudeyinianqiyangpiaolilv。erqie
，zhunbeijinlvgongjunengzhijiezhixiangyinxingdaikuanchongdong，zaidangqianshangyeyinxinglirunjiaogaozengchangdeshiqinei
，yangxinghaiyoujixushiyonggaigongjudekongjian。lingjulejie，yangxingzhengzaiyanjiuchabiezhunbeijinlv
，jizhenduibutongyinxingzhengshoubutongshuipingzhunbeijinlvdezhengce，zaihuadingmougeshidianzhihou
，duishangyeyinxingcunkuanxinzengliangbufenzhengshoujiaogaodezhunbeijinlvshuiping
，erduiyuancunkuanyuebaochiyuanlaidezhunbeijinlvshuipingdezhengce。tongguozhezhongzhengcegongju，jikeyizhelidajiyinxingdetujifangdaixingwei

，yekeyijianqingbufenchaochulvyoumingxianxiajiangqushidezhongxiaoshangyeyinxingdeyali，yeyiyujujireqian。

　　zaiyonghuobizhengcedujieliudongxingdetongshi
，fenxirenshirenwei，gengxuyaoyongxiangduilinghuodecaizhengzhengcelaihuajiejingjiyunxingzhongdejiegouxingwenti。yifangmian，yingtongguoshidujiadacaizhengzhuanyizhifulidu

，jiakuaizaiquhuifushengchanbufa，baozhengguoneishangpinshichanggongying
；同時
，還應進一步提高財政的均等性，促進國內消費水平提高，隻有加大啟動內需力度，才能加大消費這駕馬車的“馬力”。

　　另一方麵，財政政策還應在稅收上做文章，通過適當調整稅收政策，如抑製農產品(33.98,0.37,1.10%,吧)及相關產品出口，鼓勵緊缺產品進口，才能從源頭上穩住物價。（周明）

　　來源：中國證券報-中證網