http://kadhoai.com.cn 2026-04-29 12:14:42 來源:國際金融報
編者語:youyuguojiyoujiagaojubuxia,gaoyoujiawentiyijingyinqileshijiegezhuyaojingjitidedanyou。youjiachengweiquanqiujingjihuiyishangzuizhuyaodeyiti,shijiegeguofenfenxunqiuyingduizhice。shiyoudejiagewuyiyijingchengweidangjinshijiezuiweishengdongdebiaoqing。
世界能源金融大會主席、zhongguojinrongwangzongcaiheshihongjinribiaoshi,guojigaoyoujiaduiquanqiugeguodejingjijibenmianchanshengleyidingchengdudeyingxiang。gaoyoujiazaochengquanqiujingjizengsujianhuan,quanqiutongzhangzhengtishuipingpubianshenggao,shijiegeguodegerenxiaofeizhichuzengda,tongshiyejiangdilejinrongshichangdetourongzinengli。shenruyanjiuyoujiaduishijiegeguojingjideyingxiang,youzhuyuweilaiquanqiushiyounengyuanshichangdejiankangjunhengfazhan。
youyuguojiyoujiagaojubuxia,gaoyoujiawentiyijingyinqileshijiegezhuyaojingjitidedanyou。youjiachengweiquanqiujingjihuiyishangzuizhuyaodeyiti,shijiegeguofenfenxunqiuyingduizhice。shiyoudejiagewuyiyijingchengweidangjinshijiezuiweishengdongdebiaoqing——
中東:笑口常開
隨著國際油價的大幅上漲,石油資源豐富的中東產油國“喜笑顏開”。石油收入是中東產油國的主要收入來源。
隨著石油價格持續攀升,巨額“石油美元”流(liu)入(ru)中(zhong)東(dong)地(di)區(qu),但(dan)高(gao)油(you)價(jia)給(gei)中(zhong)東(dong)國(guo)家(jia)帶(dai)來(lai)財(cai)富(fu)的(de)同(tong)時(shi),也(ye)給(gei)其(qi)帶(dai)來(lai)了(le)一(yi)定(ding)的(de)通(tong)貨(huo)膨(peng)脹(zhang)。由(you)於(yu)部(bu)分(fen)中(zhong)東(dong)國(guo)家(jia)實(shi)行(xing)本(ben)國(guo)貨(huo)幣(bi)與(yu)美(mei)元(yuan)掛(gua)鉤(gou),在(zai)美(mei)元(yuan)不(bu)斷(duan)走(zou)低(di)的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)下(xia),這(zhe)些(xie)國(guo)家(jia)的(de)進(jin)口(kou)物(wu)價(jia)上(shang)漲(zhang)明(ming)顯(xian)。為(wei)減(jian)少(shao)物(wu)價(jia)上(shang)漲(zhang)對(dui)國(guo)家(jia)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)影(ying)響(xiang),一(yi)些(xie)中(zhong)東(dong)國(guo)家(jia)采(cai)取(qu)了(le)給(gei)國(guo)民(min)加(jia)薪(xin)或(huo)發(fa)放(fang)食(shi)品(pin)補(bu)貼(tie)等(deng)措(cuo)施(shi)。但(dan)總(zong)體(ti)來(lai)講(jiang),中(zhong)東(dong)地(di)區(qu)是(shi)高(gao)油(you)價(jia)的(de)最(zui)大(da)受(shou)益(yi)者(zhe)。
俄羅斯:喜中含憂
俄羅斯是全球石油生產和出口大國,國際油價的高漲為其帶來滾滾財源。但油價高漲也推動了俄羅斯物價上漲。
daliangdeshiyoumeiyuanshouruzaochengleeluosiliudongxingguosheng,daidongxiaofeixuqiudafuzengchang。yucitongshi,eluosiguoneidenongyeheshipingongyefazhanhuanman,gongbuyingqiu,zaochengjinkoudaliangzengjia,erguojishichangnongchanpinjiageyizhichuyugaowei,jinkoujiageshangsheng。zhexieyinsugongtongdaozhileeluosiguoneishipinjiagekuaisushangzhang。youzhuanjiafenxizhichu,gaoyoujiadaigeieluosigaojingjizengchangdetongshi,yejiadadangdijumindeshenghuoxiaofeiyali。
中國:尚能微笑
zaiguoneiwaiyoujiarengweiwanquanguagoudebeijingxia,guojiyoujiachixushangzhangyegeizhongguodailaileyanjundetiaozhan。zuoweishiyouxiaofeidaguo,gaoyoujiaduizhongguogexingyedeyingxiangkeweikulebujun。shangyouyouqikaicaiyelirunjuzeng,erjinxingyuanyoujiagongdeshiyoulianhuaxingyejinguanyouzhengfutigongdexingyebutie,yemianlinkuisun。
youzhuanjiabiaoshi,jinguanxiaofeiliangbuduanshangsheng,danyouyumuqianzhongguodeshiyouxiaofeizhuyaojizhongzaijiaotongyunshuheshihuadengbumen,yinci,guojiyoujiaduizhongguohongguanjingjiyunxingsuiranzaochengyidingdeyingxiang,danyingxiangfanweixiangduiyouxian。tongshi,zhongguoyongyoujiaoqiangdeshiyouziyuanchubei,zaiyidingchengdushangyezugouyingduiweilaideshiyouziyuanduanque。
美國:時笑時不笑
作為全球最大的原油消費國,美國石油大約60%依yi賴lai進jin口kou,高gao油you價jia對dui美mei國guo最zui大da的de打da擊ji莫mo過guo於yu通tong脹zhang加jia劇ju。高gao油you價jia與yu美mei元yuan貶bian值zhi相xiang互hu作zuo用yong,美mei元yuan貶bian值zhi刺ci激ji油you價jia上shang漲zhang的de同tong時shi,也ye對dui美mei國guo物wu價jia水shui平ping形xing成cheng不bu利li因yin素su。但dan在zai這zhe場chang高gao油you價jia的de角jiao逐zhu中zhong,美mei國guo也ye是shi贏ying家jia。
youyumeiyuanshishiyoudezhuyaojiesuanhuobi,gaoyoujiawanjiulemeiguodejinrong。youyuyoujiabiaosheng,yuyoupinxiangguandeyanshengpinjiazhizengjiashuwanyimeiyuan。youzhuanjiafenxizhichu,ruomeiyuan、高gao油you價jia已yi成cheng為wei美mei國guo當dang前qian核he心xin利li益yi的de現xian實shi選xuan擇ze。盡jin管guan美mei國guo需xu支zhi出chu大da量liang美mei元yuan購gou買mai石shi油you,但dan是shi這zhe些xie美mei元yuan最zui終zhong還hai要yao回hui流liu回hui來lai,因yin此ci從cong宏hong觀guan上shang來lai講jiang,美mei國guo經jing濟ji基ji本ben沒mei有you受shou到dao太tai大da損sun失shi。
歐盟:保持樂觀
油(you)價(jia)持(chi)續(xu)攀(pan)升(sheng)已(yi)被(bei)列(lie)為(wei)未(wei)來(lai)兩(liang)年(nian)歐(ou)盟(meng)經(jing)濟(ji)麵(mian)臨(lin)的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)威(wei)脅(xie)之(zhi)一(yi)。高(gao)油(you)價(jia)對(dui)歐(ou)盟(meng)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)衝(chong)擊(ji)首(shou)先(xian)是(shi)抑(yi)製(zhi)消(xiao)費(fei)。由(you)於(yu)國(guo)際(ji)市(shi)場(chang)油(you)價(jia)上(shang)漲(zhang),直(zhi)接(jie)帶(dai)動(dong)歐(ou)盟(meng)市(shi)場(chang)上(shang)汽(qi)油(you)等(deng)能(neng)源(yuan)產(chan)品(pin)價(jia)格(ge)走(zou)高(gao),從(cong)而(er)導(dao)致(zhi)企(qi)業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)本(ben)增(zeng)加(jia)。
不過,由於歐元強勢,歐盟經濟結構合理,而且在環保、節能、新能源替代領域行動較早,相比其他國家或地區,歐盟受到國際高油價的影響也略輕。
日本:比較自信
國際能源機構發表的研究報告認為,每桶石油價格每上漲10美元,世界經濟增幅將下降0.5個百分點。其中,日本將下降0.4個百分點。石油價格的不斷攀高已對日本經濟產生不利影響,其中,運輸業和部分電力行業所受到的影響最大。
但自上個世紀的石油危機之後,日本通過建立石油儲備製度、實施能源多樣化戰略、dalifazhanjienengjishudengyixilieyingduicuoshi,shiqinengyuanxiaofeijiegoufashenglehendabianhua,diyuyoujiafengxiandenenglidafuzengqiang,shiyouzhangjiaduijingjidebuliyingxiangyijingdafujianruo。
非洲:最近比較煩
guojishichangyoujiagaoqi,shifeizhoudaludeshiyoujinkouguofuchulegaoangdaijia。zuoweishiyoujinkouguo,dongfeizuidadejingjitikenniyadeshiyoujinkoufeiyongyuezhanqijinkouzongede23%。
erduifeizhoushiyouchukouguolaishuo,gaoyoujiadaigeitamenyuanyuanbuduandeshiyoumeiyuandetongshi,yedailaileguojiabuwendingdeyinsu。zaifeizhousahalashamoyinandiqudezuidachanyouguoniriliya,yinzaoyuwuzhuangxijierguanbileguoneibufenyuanyoushengchansheshi,yinfadefengbozhijinrengweiwanquanpingxi。
拉美:鎮定自若
meiguoxinyongpingjijigoubiaozhunpuergongsizuixinfabudeyifenbaogaocheng,quanqiushiyoujiagebiaoshengduilameishiyougongsidexinyongpingjiyingxiangbuda,qixinyongdengjizaiduanqineijiangbaochiwending。
盡管部分拉美石油企業從油價上漲中受益,但其同時也麵臨著成本增大的壓力。由於一些拉美國家對石油產品實行價格調控、課以重稅或提供政府補貼,拉美一些石油產品的價格甚至低於國際平均水平。(陳維)